prediction-market-uncertainty

prediction-market-uncertainty

Real-time uncertainty index from 30,000+ prediction markets. One function, one number (0-100).

import uncertainty from 'prediction-market-uncertainty'
const score = await uncertainty() // 31 (0-100)

What is this?

A single number (0-100) that measures how much prediction markets disagree with each other right now. Derived from orderbook spreads across 30,000+ markets on Kalshi and Polymarket.

• 0-20: Markets are confident and agree (complacent)
• 20-40: Normal uncertainty
• 40-60: Elevated uncertainty
• 60-80: High uncertainty, markets in flux
• 80-100: Extreme uncertainty / crisis

Think of it as a VIX for prediction markets, but derived from actual betting spreads rather than options pricing.

Install

npm install prediction-market-uncertainty

Usage

import { uncertainty, geopolitical, momentum, signals } from 'prediction-market-uncertainty'

const u = await uncertainty()    // 0-100
const g = await geopolitical()   // 0-100 geopolitical risk
const m = await momentum()       // -1 to +1 directional bias
const all = await signals()      // all four at once

CLI

npx prediction-market-uncertainty          # formatted output
npx prediction-market-uncertainty --number # just the number
npx prediction-market-uncertainty --json   # JSON

Use cases

• Gate deployments: don't deploy if uncertainty > 80
• Agent context: inject uncertainty level into system prompts
• Dashboard widgets: show current market sentiment
• Trading bots: adjust position sizing based on uncertainty

License

MIT — SimpleFunctions