Prediction Market Agent Tooling
Tooling for benchmarking, deploying and monitoring agents for prediction market applications.
Setup
Install the project dependencies with poetry
, using Python >=3.10:
python3.10 -m pip install poetry
python3.10 -m poetry install
python3.10 -m poetry shell
Create a .env
file in the root of the repo with the following variables:
Deploying and monitoring agents using GCP requires that you set up the gcloud CLI (see here for installation instructions, and use gcloud auth login
to authorize.)
MANIFOLD_API_KEY=...
BET_FROM_PRIVATE_KEY=...
OPENAI_API_KEY=...
Benchmarking
Create a benchmarkable agent by subclassing the AbstractBenchmarkedAgent
base class, and plug in your agent's research and prediction functions into the predict
method.
Use the Benchmarker
class to compare your agent's predictions vs. the 'wisdom of the crowd' on a set of markets from your chosen prediction market platform.
For example:
import prediction_market_agent_tooling.benchmark.benchmark as bm
from prediction_market_agent_tooling.benchmark.agents import RandomAgent
from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.markets import MarketType, get_binary_markets
benchmarker = bm.Benchmarker(
markets=get_binary_markets(limit=10, market_type=MarketType.MANIFOLD),
agents=[RandomAgent(agent_name="a_random_agent")],
)
benchmarker.run_agents()
md = benchmarker.generate_markdown_report()
This produces a markdown report that you can use for comparing agents side-by-side, like:
Deploying
Deprecated: We suggest using your own infrastructure to deploy, but you may still find this useful.
Create a deployable agent by subclassing the DeployableTraderAgent
base class, and implementing the answer_binary_market
method.
For example, deploy an agent that randomly picks an outcome:
import random
from prediction_market_agent_tooling.deploy.agent import DeployableTraderAgent
from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.agent_market import AgentMarket
class DeployableCoinFlipAgent(DeployableTraderAgent):
def answer_binary_market(self, market: AgentMarket) -> bool | None:
return random.choice([True, False])
DeployableCoinFlipAgent().deploy_gcp(...)
Safe
Agents can control funds via a wallet primary key only, or optionally via a Safe as well. For deploying a Safe manually for a given agent, run the script below:
poetry run python scripts/create_safe_for_agent.py --from-private-key <YOUR_AGENT_PRIVATE_KEY> --salt-nonce 42
This will output the newly created Safe in the terminal, and it can then be copied over to the deployment part (e.g. Terraform).
Note that salt_nonce
can be passed so that the created safe is deterministically created for each agent, so that, if the same salt_nonce
is used, the script will not create a new Safe for the agent, instead it will output the previously existent Safe.
You can then specify this agent's Safe address with the SAFE_ADDRESS
environment variable.
Monitoring
Monitor the performance of the agents deployed to GCP, as well as meta-metrics of the prediction market platforms they are deployed to.
This runs as a streamlit app on a localhost server, executed with:
PYTHONPATH=. streamlit run examples/monitor/monitor.py
Which launches in the browser:
The Market Platforms
The following prediction market platforms are supported:
Prediction Markets Python API
We have built clean abstractions for taking actions on the different prediction market platforms (retrieving markets, buying and selling tokens, etc.). This is currently undocumented, but for now, inspecting the AgentMarket
class and its methods is your best bet.
For example:
from prediction_market_agent_tooling.config import APIKeys
from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.agent_market import SortBy
from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.omen.omen import OmenAgentMarket
market = OmenAgentMarket.get_binary_markets(limit=1, sort_by=SortBy.CLOSING_SOONEST)[0]
market.place_bet(outcome=True, amount=market.get_bet_amount(0.1))
my_positions = OmenAgentMarket.get_positions(user_id=APIKeys().bet_from_address)
print(my_positions)
market.sell_tokens(outcome=True, amount=market.get_bet_amount(0.095))
This API can be built on top of to create your application. See here for an example.
Contributing
See the Issues for ideas of things that need fixing or implementing. The team is also receptive to new issues and PRs.
We use mypy
for static type checking, and isort
, black
and autoflake
for linting. These all run as steps in CI.